Artesia, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

265
FXUS64 KMAF 091119
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

- Very warm and sunny with above normal temperatures into next
  week across the region. Temperatures peak this weekend. No rain
  chances are expected until at least the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

The overall weather pattern continues to amplify today through
Thursday. Mid-level ridging continues to build across the
Southwestern United States and Great Basin concurrently with a
digging shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
This pattern maintains the very warm, dry, and sunny weather
across the region. This morning starts mild in the upper 40s to
middle 50s. The aforementioned amplifying weather pattern
continues the warming trend this afternoon as most locations climb
to approximately 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures in the
middle 80s and lower 90s are going to be commonplace across the
area. This warming trend would largely continue unabated, however,
a weak cold front is ushered through the area with the shortwave
trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This cold front does
little for overnight temperatures which become a touch warmer as
most only fall into the middle to upper 50s. Heading into Thursday
afternoon, much of Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin can
expect temperatures a few degrees cooler than Wednesday with the
cold front. Further to the south, the same can not be said.
Afternoon temperatures are forecast to increase a few degrees over
Wednesday. High temperatures in the 90s should be a common
occurrence with even hotter temperatures into the 100s possible
for much of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend. The cold front is
just a small bump in the road before even warmer temperatures
later in the forecast.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Not any major changes to the forecast in the extended, but
temperatures will continue to be the most significant weather
feature. The cold front that moves through Wednesday has trended
earlier and weaker, and highs on Thursday have consequently
trended a few degrees warmer, especially along the Pecos River
Valley into Terrell County and Rio Grande basins. However,
residual northerly winds shifting to easterly and becoming gusty
at times throughout Thursday night in association with a
reinforcing cold front will limit WAA and downsloping warming
winds. This keep lows 5 to 10 degrees above average. This
translates to lows ranging from mid to upper 40s in northern Lea
County and northern Permian Basin as well as higher elevations and
foothills of Davis Mountains, mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Ensembles and high-res deterministic models display consistency
with lows in the NBM, with spread in ensembles remaining below 5F,
therefore went with NBM for lows Thursday night. CAA from the
reinforcing cold front sticks around Friday before winds veer back
to southerly later in the day. However, highs Friday will be
around 5 degrees cooler than Thursday, with highs in the NBM
ranging from mid to upper 70s higher elevations and northern Lea
County, lower to mid 80s, mid to upper 80s near and along Pecos
River and into Terrell County, and lower to mid 90s near the Rio
Grande. Ensembles again show similar but with up to 5 to 10 degree
spread from Pecos River into SE NM plains in some ensembles,
although with a low probability for everywhere except the Big Bend
and Presidio Valley exceeding 90F. A consistent 20 to 25 degree
diurnal range given dew point temperatures from the 20s to 30s F
yields lows Friday night around 10 degrees above average, lower to
mid 50s in usual cooler spots of northern SE NM plains and
Permian Basin, higher elevations and surrounding foothills, and
along river valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s southwest of Pecos
River, especially from the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend.
There is a medium to low probability in ensembles of lows only
falling into the upper 60s near the northern slopes of the Davis
Mountains.

Warmer than average weather ramps up during the weekend as not
only pre-frontal troughing and a dryline sharpen at the surface
and increase southerly and then southwesterly downsloping
component to the winds, but mid to upper ridging builds from the
Desert SW into the Southern Great Plains, as depicted in both
deterministic and ensemble models. Deterministic models have 1000
to 500 mb thicknesses rising to between 570 and 576 decameters and
500 mb geopotential heights rising to between 582 and 588
decameters. With strengthening ridging aloft and subsequent
subsidence, skies remain mostly clear and allow for diurnal
heating. Saturday, highs have trended up, rising 12 to 14 degrees
above average and largely ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s,
cooler at higher elevations and across southeast Permian Basin,
warmer along the Pecos River and into Terrell County and Rio
Grande basins. Triple digit is not only showing up on NBM but also
medium to high ensemble probabilities, unlike past heat events
this year, so Saturday will definitely deliver a summer-like
feeling that we haven`t experienced here since last autumn. Higher
end percentiles in ensembles are also hinting at highs above 95F
over the Upper Trans Pecos. Diurnal range of 20 to 25 degrees
means lows only fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s range Saturday
night. If Saturday wasn`t warm enough, Sunday is still on track to
be the warmest day in the extended - 14 to 15 degrees above
average - as return flow increases with ridging both aloft and
near the surface moves east of the area. Highs lower to mid 90s,
mid to upper 80s northern and western SE NM plains and higher
elevations, and upper 90s to triple digits along the Rio Grande
are all anticipated. Lows Sunday night again fall into the upper
50s to mid 60s range.

This early taste of summer-like weather will not last as
deterministic and ensemble models show troughing developing over
the Great Basin into the Desert SW reducing heights and
thicknesses over the area, and WPC Surface Analysis depicting a
weak cold front moving into the region aided by this troughing. A
northerly wind shift and increased clouds limit WAA and diurnal
heating, respectively, keeping highs Monday just below 10 degrees
above average and similar to this Thursday. Lows also fall back
into the mid to upper 40s to mid to upper 50s range Monday night,
with exception of lower to mid 60s Rio Grande basins and Terrell
County where the cold front may stall. Even cooler weather is in
the forecast next Tuesday with a sharp temperature gradient of
upper 60s to mid 70s north and northwest of Stockton Plateau, and
80s to 90s south of Davis Mountains and Lower Trans Pecos, a few
degrees below average with largest departures across northern
portions of the region. PoPs up to 10%-15% are also indicated,
although highest magnitude of PoPs remains to the northeast and
will depend on the track and intensity of the storm system moving
in from the west. Highs recover by a few degrees next Wednesday
but remain below average as the troughing pattern over the western
into south-central CONUS persists. Lows next Tuesday and
Wednesday nights likewise tumble down closer to 5 degrees above
average with 40s higher elevations, northern SE NM plains, and
northern Permian Basin, 50s, and lower 60s within a few hundred
miles of the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

VFR conditions continue across the region with light winds this
morning. A weak cold front will result in a northerly wind shift
late this morning and early this afternoon. Winds become light
again tonight before winds gradually shift to southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 87  53  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   92  55  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  58  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           80  59  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    86  51  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    82  51  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     90  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   88  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     90  53  89  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91